昨天的FOMCstatement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

就業市場強，失業率低，整體通膨可控，經濟預期樂觀。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

仍堅定維持通膨2%，有效就業的目標。 並認為現在對於就業市場和通膨的進展是積極的。 然而經濟前景仍有不確定性，尤其是通膨風險。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5–1/4 to 5–1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

決定維持現有的fed fund rate,在 5.25~5.5%的區間。 直到委員會確信通膨能持續往2%下降，才會釋放更明確降息路徑。 同時會持續縮表（減少國債, 市政債券和MBS相關的資產）。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

官話，咱會看勞動市場狀況/通膨壓力以及通膨期望等。

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

1）預測值僅供參考

2）PCE通膨：2024年為2.5%（12月為2.4%），2025年為2.1%（不變），2026年為2.0%（不變），長期為2.0%（不變）；

3）實質GDP成長率：2024年成長1.7%（12月為1.4%），2025年成長1.8%（不變），2026年成長1.9%（不變），長期成長1.8%（不變）；

4）失業率：2024年為4.1%（與12月相比不變），2025年為4.1%（不變），2026年為4.1%（不變），長期為4.1%（不變）；

5 ）PCE核心通膨：2024年為2.5%（12月為2.4%），2025年為2.2%（不變），2026年為2.0%（不變）。

來看下聯準會的點陣圖：

有70%的可能在6月開始降息，這是現在的市場共識。 預期聯準會在3月和5月維持利率水準不變的可能性分別為99%和90.8%，預計聯準會有55.2%的可能在6月降息。

關於總體的交易意見：
1）金價股價雙多頭是市場重點。
2）做空經濟泡沫為時過早，享受泡沫ride with bubble
3) Mag 7 市值將持續往上飆升，美股市場將更集中，潛在也會放大後續調整的風險。
4）隨著美股走強，流動性會逐漸成為問題，銀行間風險將是重點關注對象。

加入硬派國際投研交易社群：