Facta non Verba: How to Own Your Enemies

（Facta non Verba; 意为：做就做，别逼逼)

(Chapter in Skin in the Game)

关于风险共担这一章节

Dead horse in your bed — Friendship via poisoned cake –Roman Emperors and U.S. presidents –A living enemy is worth ten dead ones

The best enemy is the one you own by putting skin in his game and letting
him know the exact rules that come with it. You keep him alive, in the
knowledge that he owes this to your benevolence. The notion that an
enemy you own is better than a dead one was perfected by the order of
the Assassins, so we will do some digging into the work of that secret
society.

今天文章的主题：

1）发现你的床上有只死马

2）某些人通过毒蛋糕建立友谊

3）关于罗马皇帝和美国总统

俗话说，一个活着的敌人胜过十个死去的敌人。

（与其简单让这些敌人见上帝，倒不如让他们跪下来遵守你的游戏规则）

最好的敌人是你那些你迫使他们和你风险共担的敌人，你迫使了他们进入你的的游戏并让他知道随之而来的确切规则，更重要的是，违反这些规则的严重后果。

你让他活着的唯一目的，因为你知道他应该得到你的仁慈。然而使这个敌人苟活远比杀死你的敌人对你更有利这一观念是由古老的刺客组织发展并完善的，所以我们将深入研究这个秘密组织的工作。

An offer very hard to refuse

难以拒绝的赏赐

There is this formidable scene in the Godfather when a Hollywood executive
wakes up with the bloody severed head of a horse in his bed, his
cherished race horse.

《教父》中有这样一个令人震惊的场景：一位好莱坞高管一觉醒来，发现床上有一颗血淋淋的马头，那是他心爱的赛马。

He had refused to hire a Sicilian American actor for reasons that appeared
iniquitous, as while he knew the latter was the best for the role, he
was resentful of the “olive oil voice” that charmed one of his past
mistresses and fearful of its powers to seduce future ones. It turned
out that the actor, who in real life was (possibly) Frank Sinatra, had
friends and friends of friends, that type of thing; he was even the
godson of a capo. A visit from the consigliere of the “family” neither
succeeded to sway the executive, nor softened his Hollywood abrasiveness
–the fellow failed to realize that by flying across the country to make
the request, the high ranking mobster was not just providing the type
of recommendation letter you mail to the personnel department of a state
university. He had made him an offer that he could not refuse (the expression was popularized by that scene in the movie).

这位可怜的好莱坞高管拒绝雇用一名西西里裔美国演员，理由似乎很不公正，因为虽然他知道后者最适合这个角色，但他讨厌那迷倒他前任情妇的“被橄榄油润滑了的嗓子”，担心它会勾引未来的情妇。原来，这位演员在现实生活中 (可能是) 是弗兰克·辛纳屈 (Frank
Sinatra)，他有朋友和朋友的朋友，诸如此类；他甚至还是一个黑帮头目的教子。这位“家族”顾问的来访既未能说服这位高管，也未能软化他好莱坞式的粗鲁
— — 这家伙没有意识到，这位高级黑帮分子飞越全国提出请求，可不只是在提供那种你寄给州立大学人事部门的推荐信。他给了他一个无法拒绝的提议 (这个表达因电影中的那个场景而流行起来)。

It was a threat, and not an empty threat.

更确切来说，这是一个威胁，同时并非是虚张声势。

As I am writing these lines, people discuss terrorism and terrorist groups
while making a severe category mistakes; there are in fact two totally
distinct varieties. The first are terrorists that are terrorists for
about every person equipped with ability to discern and isn’t a resident
of Saudi Arabia or works for a think tank funded by Sheikhs; the second
are militia groups largely called terrorists by their enemies, and
“resistance” or “freedom fighters” by those who don’t dislike them.

在我写这些文字的时候，人们在讨论恐怖主义和恐怖组织时犯了一个严重的分类错误；

事实上，恐怖主义和恐怖组织完全是两码事。

第一种是恐怖分子，对于几乎每一个有辨别能力的人来说，他们都是恐怖分子，他们不是沙特阿拉伯居民，也不是酋长资助的智库工作人员；

第二种是民兵组织，他们的敌人大多称他们为恐怖分子，而那些不讨厌他们的人则称他们为“抵抗组织”或“自由战士”。

The first includes nonsoldiers who indiscriminately kill civilians for
effect and don’t bother with military targets as their aim isn’t to make
military gains, just to make a statement, harm some living humans,
produce some noise and, for some, a low-error way to go to paradise.
Most Sunni Jihadis, of the type to take incommensurable pleasure in
blowing up civilians, such as Al Qaeda, ISIS, the “moderate rebels” in
Syria sponsored by former U.S. president Obama’s, are in that category.
The second group is about strategic political assassination –the Irish
Republican Army, most Shiite organizations, Algerian independence
fighters against France, French resistance fighters during the German
occupation, etc.

第一类是非军人，他们为了达到目的不分青红皂白地杀害平民，不关心军事目标，因为他们的目的不是取得军事上的胜利，而是为了发表声明，伤害一些活人，制造一些噪音，对一些人来说，这是一种低错误率的天堂之路（自爆）。大多数逊尼派圣战者都属于这一类，他们从炸毁平民中获得无比的快感，比如基地组织、ISIS、美国前总统奥巴马资助的叙利亚“温和叛军”。

第二类是战略政治暗杀 — — 爱尔兰共和军、大多数什叶派组织、反抗法国的阿尔及利亚独立战士、德国占领期间的法国抵抗战士等。

For Shiites and similar varieties in the Near and Middle East, the
ancestry, methods, and rules originate in the order of the Assassins,
itself following the modus of the Judean Sicarii during Roman times. The
Sicarii are named after the daggers they used to kill Roman soldiers
and, mostly their Judean collaborators, owing to what they perceived was
the profanation of the Temple and the land.

对于近东和中东的什叶派和类似派别而言，其血统、方法和规则源自刺客组织，而刺客组织本身则遵循罗马时期短剑党（Judean Sicarii,古代的锡安主义者)
的行事方式。短剑党（匕首党）以他们用来杀死罗马士兵和犹太同伙的匕首而得名，因为他们认为这些匕首亵渎了圣殿和土地。

I have the misfortune to know a bit about the subject as I am the only
one of those “notable” former students listed on the Wikipedia page of
the Lycée Franco-Libanais, my elementary and high school, whose
notability doesn’t originate for having, like my classmates and
childhood friends, having being the victim of a successful or attempted
assassination.

我很不幸对这个话题有所了解，因为我是我小学和中学法国-黎巴嫩中学维基百科页面上列出的那些“著名”校友中唯一一个不像我的同学和儿时朋友那样因为成为暗杀或暗杀未遂的受害者而出名的人。

The Assassins

刺客们

Sanjar became in 1118 the sultan of the Seljuk Turkish Empire of Asia minor
(that is, modern day Turkey), Iran, and parts of Afghanistan. Soon after
his accession, he woke up one day with a dagger next to his bed, firmly
planted in the ground. In one version of the legend, a letter informed
him that the dagger thrusted in hard ground was preferable to the
alternative, being plunged in his soft breast. It was a characteristic
message of the Hashishins, a.k.a. Assassins, making him aware of the
need to leave them alone, say send them birthday gifts, or hire their
actors for his next movie. Sultan Sanjar had previously snubbed their
peace negotiators; so they moved to phase two of a demonstrably well
planned out process. They convinced him that his life was in their hands and that, crucially, he didn’t have to worry if he did the right
thing –they had proven to him that they were both in control and
reliable. Indeed Sanjar and the Assassins had a happy life ever-after.

1118年，桑贾尔成为塞尔柱土耳其帝国的苏丹，统治范围包括小亚细亚（即现代的土耳其）、伊朗和阿富汗部分地区。即位后不久，有一天他醒来时发现床边有一把匕首，牢牢地插在地上。

传说中，一封信告诉他，将匕首插进坚硬的地面比刺进柔软的胸膛要好（意味着刺客想表达随时想要都能杀死他，但却选择不杀，以让目标活在死亡的恐惧之中）。

这是哈希辛（又名刺客）的典型信息，让他意识到需要不要打扰他们，比如给他们送生日礼物，或者为他的下一部电影聘请他们的演员。苏丹桑贾尔此前曾冷落过他们的和平谈判者；因此他们进入了显然经过精心策划的进程的第二阶段。他们说服他，他的生命掌握在他们手中，而且，最重要的是，他不必担心自己是否做了正确的事情 — — 他们已经向他证明了他们既能掌控一切又值得信赖。

桑贾尔和刺客们确实从此过上了幸福的生活。

You will note that no explicit verbal threat was issued. Verbal threats
reveal nothing other than weakness and unreliability. Remember, once
again,noverbal threats.

The Assassins were a 11th-14th C. sect related to Shiite Islam and was (and
still is through its reincarnations) violently anti-Sunni. They were
often associated with the Knight Templars as they fought frequently on
the side of the crusaders –and if they seem to share some of the values
of the Templars, in sparing the innocent and the weak, it is more likely
because the former group transmitted some of their values to the
latter. The chivalric code of honor has, for second clause: I shall respect and defend the weak, the sick, and the needy.

这其中，我们能发现，刺客没有发出任何明确的口头威胁。所谓的口头威胁只会暴露出软弱和不可靠。再次记住，不要口头威胁（要干直接干不要瞎逼逼）。

刺客是 11 至 14
世纪与什叶派伊斯兰教有关的教派，并且（并且在其轮回中仍然如此）强烈反对逊尼派。他们经常与圣殿骑士团联系在一起，因为他们经常在十字军一边作战 — —
 
如果他们似乎分享了圣殿骑士团的一些价值观，即饶恕无辜者和弱者，那更可能是因为前者将他们的一些价值观传递给了后者。骑士荣誉准则的第二条是：我将尊重和保护弱者、病人和穷人。

The Assassins supposedly send the same message to Saladin, informing him
that the cake he was about to eat was poisoned… by them.

The ethical system of the Assassins is that political assassination help
prevent war; threat of the dagger-by-your-bed variety are even better
for bloodless control[1]. They supposedly aimed at sparing civilians and
people who were not directly targeted. The methods focusing on
precision meant to reduce what is now called civilian “collateral
damage”.

据说刺客们也向萨拉丁（阿拉伯世界最伟大的君王）传递了同样的信息，告诉他他即将吃的蛋糕被下了毒……是他们下的。

刺客们的道德体系是政治暗杀有助于防止战争；而床边匕首的威胁更有利于不流血的控制[1]。据说他们的目的是保护平民和没有直接受到攻击的人。注重精确度的方法旨在减少现在所谓的平民“附带损害”。

Assassination as Marketing

Those readers who may have tried to get rid of pebbles in their shoes (that is, someone you bothers you and doesn’t get the hint) might know
that “contracts” on ordinary citizens (that is, to trigger their
funeral) are relatively easy to perform and inexpensive to buy. There is
a relatively active underground market for these contracts. In general,
you need to pay a bit more to “make it look like an accident”. However
skilled historians and observers of martial history would recommend the
exact opposite: in politics, you should have to pay more to make it look
intentional.

In fact, what Captain Weisenborn, Pasquale Cirillo, and I discovered, when
we tried doing a systematic study of violence (debunking a
confabulatory thesis by the science writer Steven Pinker), was that war
numbers have been historically inflated… by both sides. Both the Mongols
and their panicky victims had an incentive to exaggerate, which acted
as a deterrent. Mongols weren’t interested in killing everybody; they
just wanted submission, which came cheaply though terror. Further,
having spent some time perusing the genetic imprints of invaded
populations, it is clear that if the warriors coming from the Eastern
steppes left a cultural imprint, they certainly left their genes at
home. Gene transfer between areas by happens by group migrations,
inclement climate, unaccommodating soil rather than war.

暗杀作为营销手段那些可能曾试图摆脱鞋子里的石子（即有人打扰你而你却没有明白其中的意思）的读者可能知道，与普通公民签订“合同”（即激活他们的葬礼）相对容易执行，而且购买成本低廉。

然而这些合同有一个相对活跃的地下市场。一般来说，你需要多付一点钱来“让它看起来像是意外”。然而，熟练的历史学家和军事历史观察家会建议完全相反的做法：在政治上，你应该付更多的钱让它看起来像是故意的。

事实上，当我们尝试对暴力进行系统研究（揭穿科学作家史蒂芬平克的虚构论文）时，魏森伯恩上尉、帕斯夸莱西里洛和我发现，历史上战争人数一直被夸大……双方都是如此。蒙古人和他们惊慌失措的受害者都有夸大其词的动机，这起到了威慑作用。蒙古人对杀死所有人不感兴趣；他们只是想要臣服，而这可以通过恐怖手段轻易实现。此外，在花了一些时间仔细研究被入侵人口的基因印记后，很明显，如果来自东部草原的战士留下了文化印记，那么他们肯定也把基因留在了家乡。地区之间的基因转移是通过群体迁徙、恶劣的气候、不适宜的土壤而不是战争来实现的。

More connected to recent events, I discovered that the Hama “massacre” of
Syrian Jihadis by Assad senior was at least an order of magnitude lower
than what was reported; the rest came from inflation –numbers swelling
over time from 2,000 to close to 40,000 without significant information.
Simply, Assad wanted, at the time, to intimidate and his enemies, the
Islamist and their journalist sympathizers, former U.S. president
Obama’s wanted to aggrandize the event.

更深入地了解最近发生的事件，我发现老阿萨德对叙利亚圣战分子哈马“大屠杀”的人数至少比报道的人数少一个数量级；其余数字则来自虚假报道 — — 在没有重要信息的情况下，人数随着时间的推移从 2,000 人膨胀到近 40,000
人。简单地说，阿萨德当时想恐吓他的敌人，伊斯兰主义者和他们的记者同情者，美国前总统奥巴马想夸大这一死亡数字。

Assassination as Democracy

关于皿煮世界的刺杀

Now, political life; if the democratic system doesn’t fully deliver
governance –it patently doesn’t, owing to cronyisms and the Hillary
Montanto-Malmaison style of covert legal corruption; if the system
doesn’t fully deliver governance, we have known forever what does: an
increased turnover at the top. Count Munster’s epigrammatic description
of the Russian Constitution explains it: “Absolutism tempered by
assassination”.

While today’s politicians have no skin in the game and do not have to worry
so long as they play the game, thanks the increased life expectancy of
modern times, they stay longer and longer on the job. France’s
pseudo-socialist Francois Mitterrand reigned for fourteen years, longer
than many French Kings; thanks to technology he had more power over the
population than most French Kings. Even a United States President, the
modern kind of Emperor (unlike Napoleon and the Tsars, Roman emperors
before Diocletian were not absolutists) tends to last at least four
years on the throne, while Rome had five emperors in a single year and
four in another. The mechanism worked: consider that all the bad
Emperors Caligula, Caracalla, Elagabalus, Nero ended their career either
murdered by the Pretorian guard or, in the case of Nero, suicide in
anticipation. In the first four hundred years of empire, only 20, that
is less than a third, of emperors died a natural death, assuming these
deaths were truly natural.

[1] It appears that what we read about the Assassins can be smear by their
enemies (including the apocryphal accounts according to which their name
comes from consumption of Hashish, Cannabis in Arabic, as they would
get into a trance before their assassination).

如今，如果民主制度不能完全实现治理 — — 显然不能，这是由于裙带关系和希拉里·蒙坦托-马尔梅松式的隐蔽法律所导致的系统性腐败；

如果制度不能完全实现治理，我们永远都知道什么能做到：使得高层人员更替频率更加频繁。蒙斯特伯爵对俄罗斯宪法的警句式描述解释了这一点：“暗杀缓和了专制主义的内部矛盾和冲突”。

虽然今天的政客们没有利益冲突，只要他们得以玩转zz游戏就不必担心自身的身家安全，但由于现代人寿命的增加，使得他们在职的时间越来越长。

法国伪社会主义者弗朗索瓦·密特朗在位14年，比许多法国国王在位的时间都长；由于技术的发展，他对民众的权力比大多数法国国王都大。即使是美国总统，现代的皇帝（与拿破仑和沙皇不同，戴克里先之前的罗马皇帝不是专制主义者）也往往在位至少四年，而罗马一年有五位皇帝，另一年有四位皇帝。

然而这种机制是有效的：想想所有坏皇帝卡利古拉、卡拉卡拉、埃拉伽巴卢斯、尼禄，他们要么被禁卫军杀害，要么像尼禄那样，提前自杀，结束了自己的职业生涯。在帝国的头四百年里，只有 20 位皇帝（不到三分之一）自然死亡，假设这些死亡确实是自然死亡。

[1] 看来，我们所读到的关于刺客的报道可能会被他们的敌人抹黑（包括伪造的报道，根据这些报道，他们的名字来自吸食大麻，阿拉伯语中的大麻，因为他们在被暗杀前会陷入恍惚状态）。