讓我們重溫這篇Zoltan Pozsar的舊文，此文成功預測瞭如今黃金牛市的到來。
其他Zoltan的文章：
Zoltan Pozsar, the Four Prices of Money, and the Coming Gold Bull Market
佐爾坦·波扎爾 (Zoltan Pozsar)、貨幣的四種價格以及即將到來的黃金牛市
Over the past 100 years there has been a correlation between major equity bear markets, adjustments in one of the four “prices of money,” and gold bull markets. If we let history be our guide, the current equity bear market is signaling a new gold bull market, supported by changes in the price of money.
過去 100 年來，股市熊市、四種”貨幣價格”之一的調整與黃金牛市之間存在著相關性。如果我們以歷史為鑑，當前的股市熊市預示著新的黃金牛市的到來，而貨幣價格的變化將為其提供支持。
One of the more intriguing financial analysts of our times is Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director and Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse. In his writings of the past months, one of the things that caught my attention was his framework for multiple prices of money. Remarkably, when I looked up big historical changes in the price of the US dollar, they usually succeeded equity bear markets and introduced gold bull markets. Because equities are in a bear market as we speak, we can expect a gold bull market in the years ahead, enabled by the Federal Reserve changing the price of money.
當今最引人注目的金融分析師之一是瑞士信貸董事總經理兼全球短期利率策略主管 Zoltan Pozsar。在過去幾個月的著作中，引起我注意的一件事是他對貨幣多重價格的框架。值得注意的是，當我查看美元價格的歷史大變化時，它們通常繼股市熊市之後，引入黃金牛市。由於股市目前處於熊市，我們可以預期未來幾年會出現黃金牛市，這是由聯準會改變貨幣價格所促成的。
First, let’s see how changes in the price of the dollar have caused gold bull markets in the past 100 years. Then we will add the stock market.
首先，讓我們來看看過去 100 年美元價格的變化是如何引發黃金牛市的。然後我們再加入股票市場的因素來探討。
The Four Prices of Money and Previous Gold Bull Markets
貨幣的四種價格和先前發生的黃金牛市
Pozsar’s money framework, which he got from his intellectual mentor Perry Mehrling, states money has four prices:
1) Par, which is the price of different types of the same money. Cash, bank deposits, and money fund shares should always trade at a one-to-one ratio.
2) Interest rates, which is the price of future money.
3) Foreign exchange rates, which is the price of foreign money. For example, the ratio between the dollar and the euro.
4) Price level, which is the price of commodities and, via commodities, the price of all goods and services. This is usually referred to as inflation.
Pozsar 的貨幣框架來自他的導師 Perry Mehrling，該框架指出貨幣有四種價格：
- 票面價值，即同一種貨幣不同種類的價格。現金、銀行存款和貨幣基金份額應始終以一比一的比例進行交易。
- 利率，即未來貨幣的價格。
- 外匯匯率，即外國貨幣的價格。例如，美元與歐元之間的比率。
- 價格水平，即商品的價格，以及透過商品，所有商品和服務的價格。這通常被稱為通貨膨脹。
In the 1920s, credit expansion created an economic boom. When the inevitable bust followed the US entered a severe depression. Eventually, in 1933, the US government decided to internally discontinue the gold standard. Externally the dollar continued to be fixed to gold, but the peg was lowered form 0.048 troy ounces per dollar to 0.029 ounces. Strictly speaking this wasn’t a gold bull market, but the gold price did go up from $20.67 to $35 dollars per troy ounce. The dollar was devalued against gold to get even with countries that devalued before the US did and to cheapen the dollar against foreign currencies that weren’t devalued yet. The price of gold in dollars went up because of the third price of money: foreign exchange rates.
20 世紀 20 年代，信用擴張創造了經濟繁榮。當不可避免的經濟衰退隨之而來時，美國陷入了嚴重的經濟蕭條。最終，在 1933 年，美國政府決定在內部停止金本位制。在外部，美元繼續與黃金掛鉤，但掛鉤率從每美元 0.048 金衡盎司降至 0.029 盎司。嚴格來說，這不是黃金牛市，但金價確實從每金衡盎司 20.67 美元上漲到 35 美元。美元對黃金貶值，以與那些在美國貶值之前貶值的國家保持平衡，並使美元對尚未貶值的外國貨幣貶值。
以美元計價的黃金價格上漲是因為貨幣的第三種價格：外匯匯率。
In the 1960s the US started printing too many dollars relative to the amount of gold it owned backing those dollars. The gold price of $35 dollars was under pressure and the US Treasury had to sell thousands of tonnes of gold to defend the peg. To stop the bleeding, it was decided to let the gold price float in the free market in 1968. Though only marginally at first, the dollar price of gold went up because of the first price of money: par.
1960 年代，美國開始印製過多美元，而其所持有的支撐美元的黃金數量卻遠遠超過美元。 35 美元/oz的金價承受著壓力，美國財政部不得不出售數千噸黃金來捍衛掛鉤匯率。為了止血，美國決定在 1968 年讓金價在自由市場上浮動。儘管一開始只是小幅上漲，但黃金的美元價格卻因為第一個貨幣價格 — — 平價而上漲。
Foreign central banks could still redeem dollars for gold at the US Treasury after 1968 (at the statutory price, not the free market price), depleting reserves. Finally, President Nixon suspended dollar convertibility in 1971, and so removed the last check on unbridled monetary expansion. An abundance of dollars created in the 1960s and 1970s led to double-digit consumer price inflation. The gold price skyrocketed to a peak of $800 dollars in 1980. The dollar price of gold in the 1970s went up because of the fourth price of money: price level.
1968年後，外國央行仍可在美國財政部用美元兌換黃金（以法定價格，而非自由市場價格），以耗盡儲備。最後，尼克森總統在1971年暫停了美元的可兌換性，從而取消了對無節制貨幣擴張的最後一道製約。 1960年代和70年代創造的大量美元導致消費物價通膨率達到兩位數。黃金價格在1980年飆升至800美元的高峰。 70年代黃金的美元價格上漲是因為貨幣的第四個價格：物價水準。
In 1998, under the guidance of several Nobel prize-winning economists, an American hedge fund blew up. The Federal Reserve reacted by lowering interest rates, further fueling a stock boom. The dot-com bubble popped in 2000 and the Fed slashed rates from 6% to 1%. The gold price started rising again and reached $1,900 dollars per troy ounce in 2011. As inflation was rather stable from 2000 through 2011, the gold price mainly went up because of the second price of money: interest rates.
1998 年，在數位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主的指導下，美國對沖基金破產。聯準會作出反應，降低利率，進一步助長了股市繁榮。 2000 年，網路泡沫破滅，聯準會將利率從 6% 降至 1%。黃金價格再次開始上漲，並在 2011 年達到每盎司 1,900 美元。由於 2000 年至 2011 年通膨相當穩定，黃金價格上漲主要是因為貨幣的第二個價格：利率。
股市泡沫與貨幣貶值
Changes in the price of money often come after an economic downturn that a central bank counters by, for example, lowering interest rates. Easy money blows a new equity bubble. Once that pops, easier money still blows another bubble to replace the previous one. This leads to a vicious cycle of bubbles and ever-easier money, in which the value of money incrementally declines, and the gold price appreciates.
Now we understand why, in the chart below, the stock market often peaks just before the price of money is changed, and, as a consequence, the gold price rises.
貨幣價格的變化通常發生在經濟衰退之後，央行透過降低利率等措施來應對。寬鬆的貨幣政策會吹起新的股市泡沫。一旦泡沫破裂，寬鬆的貨幣政策還會吹起另一個泡沫來取代先前的泡沫。這導致了泡沫和貨幣政策越來越寬鬆的惡性循環，貨幣價值逐漸下降，而金價則上漲。
How will the price of money be altered this time around? According to Pozsar, through interest rates and price level (yield curve control). After the US weaponized its currency to freeze Russia’s assets, the amount of US government debt that needs to be financed is larger than the world is willing to absorb. The Federal Reserve will bail out the government by buying up bonds of all maturities, effectively capping yields across the curve. Inflation will stay elevated, above the entire yield curve, which lowers the value of money. In this environment investors and foreign central banks will flee to gold.
1929 年股市崩盤後，金價上漲；1970 年代初的”漂亮 50"泡沫後，金價上漲；2000 年互聯網泡沫後，金價上漲；如果未來幾年股市沒有復蘇（相對於 GDP），金價就會上漲。
這次貨幣價格將如何改變？
Pozsar 認為，是透過利率和物價水準（殖利率曲線控制）來改變。在美國將貨幣武器化以凍結俄羅斯資產後，需要融資的美國政府債務金額超過了世界願意吸收的金額。聯準會將透過購買所有期限的債券來救助政府，從而有效地限制整個曲線的殖利率。通膨將維持在高位，高於整個殖利率曲線，從而降低貨幣價值。在這種環境下，投資者和外國央行將湧向黃金。
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